AV is a type of majoritarian system, as opposed to a plurality system. Although districts (constituencies) remain single member, each member is elected by a majority of votes as opposed to a plurality. There are two basic types of majoritarian voting systems, a two round system (run off voting), in which elections are held in two rounds, and the Alternative Vote. In the two round system the top two candidates from the first round go through to the second round (usually held a week later). The French and Finnish Presidents are elected by this system. AV is a preferential voting system (as is the single transferable vote (STV) with which it shares many features), which means that voters rank their preferences, their favourite candidate is ranked first (1), their second favourite second (2) etc. If no candidate gains greater than 50% of first preference votes, then the candidate with the lowest number of first preference votes is eliminated, and their second preference votes redistributed. In the USA this system is referred to as instant run off voting. AV is used in elections to the Australian House of Representatives, and it would change the results of elections in some constituencies. For example take the case of John Howard (Liberal), the then Australian Prime Minister, in the 2007 election for the Division of Bennelong, Howard would have won the election under FPTP rules, polling 39,551 against TV presenter Maxine McKew's (Labour) 39,408. But McKew gained by far the greater number of transfer votes, especially from the Green Party, and won the election 44,685 against 42,251 for Howard.
The ERS estimate that the introduction of AV would increase Lib-Dem representation in the House of Commons, at least in the short term. But AV discriminates against small parties as much as the plurality system. For example Gordon Brown claims that AV allows voters to vote their conscience with their first preference vote, but in the Australian Federal election of 2007 the Australian Greens polled 7.79% of the vote and failed to win a single seat. Indeed of the 150 members of the Australian House of Representatives 83 are ALP members and 65 are Liberal/National coalition members (these two parties do not run candidates against one another and can be considered a single party from the point of view of psephology). Only 2 members of the Australian House of Representatives don't belong to one of these groupings. Compare this with the Australian Senate, elected by STV, where the Australian Greens hold 5 out of 76 seats.
One of the problems with the plurality voting system is the existence of safe seats. In the House of Commons about 60% of seats are safe, guaranteeing the MPs that represent those seats a job for life. This creates a patronage system, with the party having the power to de-select MPs that do not tow the party line, and providing a large pool of very loyal MPs for every party. AV does nothing to change that situation, most safe seats already give MPs in excess of 50% of the votes in elections.
AV is also likely to encourage parties to merge. If Lib-Dem votes are going to be transfered to Labour candidates anyway, then the voter might as well simply vote Labour. It is also obvious that, although all MPs would be elected with a majority of votes, many of those votes will be second, third or even fourth preference votes. In effect we end up in the same position as under the plurality system, with votes being case tactically.
In the end the conclusion has to be drawn that Gordon Brown wants AV because he believes that the Labour Party will benefit from Lib-Dem transfers more than the Conservative Party will. Gordon Brown has therefore attempted to subvert the goal of electoral reform to the interests of the Labour Party.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jenkins_Commission_(UK)
ReplyDeleteAV is not the same as AV+ see my blog about Proportional Representation, it discusses Jenkins' proposal for AV+
ReplyDeleteI know it's not the same. I imagine I posted this about the time you were posting your long blog on PR.
ReplyDelete